Ratings Based Racing: Are You confused?
In the racing vernacular, the word ‘rating’ is thrown around a fair bit… It can mean a number of things: A computer generated number (rating) given to a horse based on racetrack performances; a ranking of horses relative to one-another with a mix between statistics and human involvement/opinion; or even simply an opinion given on a race whereby the punter ‘ranks’ each horse from favourite to least favourite. These “ratings” are quite different from the ‘ratings-based racing’ which has arrived recently to racing.
in late 2006, a review of the possibility of implementing ratings-based racing, found that Victorian trainers in all corners of the state overwhelmingly supported the retention of Ratings Based racing. This is highlighted by the fact that 94% of trainers in Victoria supported the keeping this form of handicap racing.
Whilst there are many advantages RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) offers, it must be remembered that it will not always provide the same adjustments that are usually afforded by “discretionary” handicapping. (i.e. using human opinion to issuing a horse’s weight) We cannot expect that a horse having a “ratings” adjustment after a particular race, will meet each runner that finished in front of him or her in that race, on better terms in the next race.
In the highly competitive world of providing horse race tips there is a war going on between computer generated ratings and human intellect. We interviewed many racing analysts and one such professional punter was quite baffled by those using computer ratings. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com explains: “Well if this was motorbike racing I could understand using a computer to find the winner, they have a maximum speed, no upside/downside, they can’t have an ‘off day’, wet/dry tracks doesn’t bother a motorbike etc. Horses, however, are subject to a plethora of outside influences and being animals, can be brave, scared, moody, they can improve sharply with fitness level differentials etc. This is only one opinion, but I feel computer ratings are the lazy way out and not very thorough”.
The interesting thing with horses is their propensity to improve sharply from one run to another if early in their career, or early in their preparation. This is why it is imperative to notice the warning signs of a horse with significant improvement in him/her. If a horse is very ‘green’ (i.e. inexperienced, does things wrong) it can have tremendous scope to improve. If a horse is early in his/her campaign, it’s fitness levels might not be where they are required to be and again, he/she may improve lengths at a subsequent run. Form guru David Gately says “Once you know the horses, you will know their patterns, and you will find more winners!”
How to find the right race for a horse is crucial. An example: A horse may be a very good 1000m galloper yet this race is 1200m. This horse is the highest-rated runner in the race and may be favourite, however, realistically he has little chance of winning at a distance he is not comfortable at.
So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden. (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) However, as explained, this type of racing can be full of ‘value’ (horses over their true odds of winning).
David Gately, disappointed by the number of “professional” organisations out there, trying to make a quick buck by selling meaningless horse racing tips, continues to offer value information at the best prices around.. This article, Ratings Based Racing: Are You confused? has free reprint rights.
Tags: Gambling, gambling tips, horse races, recreation, sport, sports betting
